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Voting for election to the Jammu and Kashmir assembly begins on November 25 and will be completed in 5 phases; the final one being on December 20. The results will be announced on December 23. Forty-Four (44) will be the magic number for a party or alliance to form the government, given that J&K has a 87 seat assembly.
This may be by far the most complicated election in the history of the J&K State. There are several legitimate players (read political parties) in the fray and estimates vary for how many wins each will register. The top contesting parties are expected to be the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), National Conference (NC) and the Congress. There are a few other parties in the fray who could impact these elections, the prime ones being the Jammu Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP) and the People’s Conference. Then there is an array of me-toos including independents and parties with little hope such as the BSP, NCP and LJP. This time, the BJP is fighting to win and actually form the government. That may be a far fetch because 46 of the 87 seats are in the valley, where the BJP has had no winning presence in the past. However if it magically picks up some of these 46 seats and does well in the 37 seats from Jammu and 4 seats from Ladakh, it could be a major partner in a coalition. This possibility of the BJP winning more than 30 seats is well recognized by political figures in the valley and outside. The self-belief of the party in its “Mission 50” and its systematic approach towards winning has energized BJP cadres and also helped to bring on board many new believers. The party’s message of Development and Progress is resonating with the population and has earned it considerable support. The only way BJP could face a major setback is if the other parties form a tight pre-poll pact against the BJP. The PDP is expected to dominate in the valley. However, NC is unlikely to go down without a fight. The direct participation of People’s Conference does create some uncertainties and possibilities for each of the parties. The expected scenario is that the PDP will end up with more than 25 and maybe even more than 30 seats. However, things could change between now and the election days …… Not. The Congress is hoping that the BJP is restricted to less than 25 and one of PDP and NC ends up with 25 seats plus. In such a scenario, the Congress would like to offer support to that party to form a non-BJP government. However, for the Congress to be in any kind of position to influence outcomes, it has to win more than 10 seats, which at this time seems like is going to be a struggle. Hence the party is sending its stalwarts, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi for campaigning in the state. Besides, it also has lined up Manmohan Singh, Ambika Soni, Ahmed Patel, Digvijay Singh, Virbhadra Singh, Anand Sharma, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot, Salman Khurshid and Shakeel Ahmad. That is a big cast of actors for a small state poll. The disappointing fact is that only the National Parties have fielded Kashmiri Hindu (Bhatta) candidates. The BJP has fielded 4 of the 6. The 2 major regional parties NC and PDP have not fielded even a single Bhatta candidate. Here is the tally of the parties in the present assembly: NC: 28, PDP: 21, INC: 17, BJP: 11, Others: 10, Earlier, NC had 3 Members of Parliament (MPs) and the Congress had 2. However, after the National Elections of 2014, the PDP and the BJP both have 3 each whileas the NC and Congress have none. If the calculations are being made accurately, BJP and PDP should dominate in the assembly elections also. How the dice actually fall and how they roll remains to be seen however. Footnote: We wish to express support for the many thousands of Kashmiris who lost their homes during the recent floods. We hope that they find safety and succor before the winter sets in. Irrespective of how anyone feels about the violence of the late eighties and the nineties and irrespective of the political opinion one may carry, support and help for other Kashmiris should be unconditional. After the floods, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited Kashmir twice and the whole of India has delivered support and assistance. |